All I had to do was Google “Georgia Timeline” to discover several articles publishing the chronological timeline of the events leading to the current stalemate in Georgia. Why is it that I am virtually the only one in the U.S. of America claiming that the Georgians instigated the conflict, and essentially gave Russia no alternative than to assist the “separatists” and “Russian loyalists”.
Ask yourself as an American, what would we have done if Hawaii was split in two. Half “American”, and the other half “Hawaiian separatists”. If the Hawaiian’s suddenly started shelling the Americans with artillery in the middle of the night, would the American military respond?
How would you then react, as an American, if the Russians came to support the Hawaiians, threatened to cut us (the U.S.) off from the international community, and also placed missiles in Canada, Tijuana, and Hawaii? In this scenario, if the Russians demanded that we retreat from Hawaii immediately, would we immediately abandon American interests and high-tail it out of Hawaii?
Starting with the comments made by Gorbachev in the Larry King Live interview, this is one of similar time lines I discovered. Unfortunately, one has to explore outside the continental U.S. to find articles such as this article in the Telegraph.co.uk.
UPDATE: As of 8-19-08, internet blogger TheWebPixie kindly provided me with a detailed account of the events that occurred on August published by www.RussiaToday.com, as well as BBC News.
Thursday August 7 – Georgia begins a military operation to retake South Ossetia, which has had de facto independence since 1992, after days of fighting with separatists.
Friday August 8 – The Russian government sends tanks to the region and claims it must protect Russians living in the province.
Saturday August 9 – Fighting continues as the Georgian interior ministry claims Russia has carried out air strikes on three military bases and oil shipping facilities. Britain echoes international calls for a ceasefire between the two sides.
Sunday August 10 – The UK Foreign Office urges all Britons to leave Georgia and advises against non-essential travel to the region. The Russians blockade Georgia’s Black Sea coast and are accused of bombing airport.
Monday August 11 – Russian forces push beyond the borders of South Ossetia amid accusations they are attempting to “conquer” Georgia.
US President George Bush warns Moscow not to proceed with a “dramatic and brutal escalation”.
Tuesday August 12 – Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announces that his forces will end their operation in Georgia, claiming that Russia’s aims have been achieved. However reports of Russian bombing of Gori continue.
Wednesday August 13 – President George W Bush warns that Russia “must keep its word and act to end this crisis”, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says Moscow “seriously overstretched” itself in Georgia.
Thursday August 14 – Poland and America conclude a deal which will see Poland house a US missile defence system. The first shipments of US humanitarian aid arrive in Georgia. A Russian commander in the region says his troops starting to withdraw.
Friday August 15 – US President George W Bush accused Russia of “bullying and intimidation”. The Polish missile deal angers Russia which said the US move “cannot go unpunished”. It claims it will be forced to re-direct nuclear missiles on Poland.
You might be interested to know that RussiaToday gave a minute-by-minute timeline. (http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28664). And then there is this from the BBC: (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7551576.stm)
Growing up during the coldest days of the Cold War makes it difficult to see things through a different prism, so to speak. Personally, I would be more inclined to think it’s a GOP scare tactic to motivate people to vote out of fear instead of hope, but who really knows.
I really am interested to know what you think about the video linked to this site:
(http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.1769,filter.all/event_detail.asp#)
The video link is in the upper right of the page. The assessment that struck me starts at 21:41, at least it did the first time I watched it. Seriously, Peter, I would really like to know your take on it. I don’t expect that we’ll agree, but I’m still intersted to hear your thinking on what the guy has to say.
Cheers!
RESPONSE TO WEBPIXIE
Lt Col Ralph Peters: Arrogant, insulting, has the typical cold war veteran mentality.
He did have one accurate assessment, the Russians had to have planned this for some time. In my opinion, they may have had intelligence that the US and Georgia were preparing to provoke a confrontation.
The fact remains that the Georgians fired the first salvo. To date, no one has presented evidence to the contrary.
As a cold war veteran with high level exposure to some extreme misinformation tactics, to me Ralph Peter’s posture was very typical of 1985 cold war speak. It’s now 2008, and his methods are obsolete.
Certainly, Russia may outsmart us if we don’t get our act together. They already have outsmarted us with their “surprising” incursion. Shouldn’t our intelligence community have provided us with the opportunity to warn the Russians of the consequences for invading — in advance.
Billions of dollars spent on satellite technology and intelligence, and nobody was watching?
Frightening.
I could hardly agree with you more about Lt.Col. Peters. C-SPAN did a l-o-n-g feature on him and he seemed clearly quite impressed with himself.
That Cold War mentality is hard for a civilian to shake. It’s gotta really be tough for a Cold War military man to cast aside.
It would be idiotic for Georgia or the United States especially, to provoke anyone into such a confrontation. What would be the point? What could’ve been their objective?
That may well be true that the Georgians fired the first salvo. I haven’t read anything to the contrary either.
One account I read claimed the South Ossetians wanted independence from Georgia. I don’t know why that would require Russian peacekeepers to be there.
Another account said that Russians civilians were moving to live in South Ossetia, forcing the Ossetians to move elsewhere. The Russian peacekeepers were there for whatever reason it is that peacekeepers to anywhere.
Still another interpretation I read claimed that the North and South Ossetians wanted to be reunited. South Ossetians were being given Russian passports, for whatever reaon.
I certainly agree that the United States should have been able to collect better intelligence. What good is it to spend billions of dollars on satellite technology and intelligence if we don’t make use of it!
None of this contradicts what you are saying in your post. At least, I don’t think it’s overly inconsistent with your theory.
What I don’t understand, and I don’t really see where you address this, is why did the Russians keep moving into the rest of Georgia, beyond the province of South Ossetian?